Indian government has finally realized the importance of road sector

April 26, 2010

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Huge opportunities are unfolding in the Indian road sector. This means most Indian infrastructure and construction companies will benefit from the announcement of new orders or projects in the long run.

Also, a large number of these projects are on Build Operate and Transfer (BOT) and annuity basis, which means the companies will have a steady flow of cash through annuity or toll. This development spells good news for investors who can make full use of this golden chance and earn high returns in the long run.

WHY NOW?

The question that may cross your mind is why now? Ever since Kamal Nath took over as the Union minister for roads and transport, the Indian road segment has taken a new turn. He created various milestones since he was given this portfolio.

The most important announcement he made was the construction of the national highway at the rate of 20 km per day to expedite the achievement of National Highway Development Programme (NHDP) targets. This is significantly higher than the current execution rate of about 6 km per day. The ministry has also been working towards faster clearances related to procedures, land acquisitions and other formalities.

CREATION OF FUNDING

Kamal Nath is aware of the fact that improved road network in the country would not just lead to better connectivity but would also lead to increased energy efficiency in transport operations. He also travelled across different countries on road shows to international investors to highlight opportunities and potential in the Indian road sector.

Through these measures, the government has and will be able to rope in huge investments needed for the sector from international and national long-term investors.

Earlier it was difficult to raise money for more than five years or so as money was available only for a short period. However, now that the corporate debt market is developing, long-term investors like pension funds, mutual fund houses, insurance companies and even banks are coming forward to provide long-term capital. Most road projects, particularly the BOT ones need huge long-term investments in the form of debt and equity to fund them.

INCREASING VIABILITY

In terms of the less viable projects, the government increased the viability gap funding (VGF) or grant to 40% from 25%. Formerly, the grant used to be given after the completion of the project. But now it is handed over at the beginning of the project. In this manner the construction of the project does not get delayed for want of funds.

The government is also working on creating innovative ways of structuring non-viable projects like allotment of land, which can be monetized by developers so that the returns on investments are reasonable.

Other aspects like increasing the role of private players through public private partnership (PPP) and awarding of projects on BOT basis would mean that private players now have a bigger role to play in the construction of viable road projects.

A LONG WAY TO GO

India currently has about 33 lakh km of road network spread across the country. This is the third largest network in the world. But, in terms of density and quality of roads, India still lags behind many developed and developing countries of the world.

In relation to our population, the country’s roads are about 3 km per 1,000 persons, which is significantly lower than the world average of about 7 km per person. In terms of quality, about 80% of our roads are in a poor condition and require huge investments for repair, renovation and increase in the number of lines.

Majority of India’s roads are single line in spite of increasing traffic and congestion. Even the conditions of our existing roads are so bad that India’s logistical cost as a percentage of total production cost is considered to be about twice the world average of 7%.

No wonder due to the poor road infrastructure, India is ranked 87th in the world on the basis of quality of roads, which is very low and considered to be the biggest hindrance for economic growth as envisaged by the government for the coming years.

Surprisingly, within this vast network of roads, only about 2% is accounted for by national highways and a very minuscule part is accounted for by express highways, which is very critical considering that about 40% of the total road traffic is handled by national highways.

The slow transportation of goods has also affected the movement of goods among states, delaying exports and imports of the country. Especially, in the case of transportation of perishable goods like milk, vegetables and flowers among other things, which are procured from the hinterland takes so much time that they become stale or get destroyed before they can actually reach the end consumer and the export market.

This leads to wastage of goods due to the delay in reaching the markets. Express road connectivity to the main ports of the country and to major cities is very important to improve trade volumes and discover better prices for farm goods.

WHAT IS CHANGING?

The government has realized the importance of better roads in the country so that it can support the growth of the economy in the coming years. Roads are critical for any economy, especially a growing economy like India with a large population and different topographies.

The role of roads is of paramount importance for commercial and economic activities in the country. In India, passenger traffic is growing at about 12% per annum, while cargo traffic is growing over 15%, which will continue to rise as economic activities improve along with the increase in foreign trade.

India’s foreign trade is growing at 10-12 % and there is an immediate need to connect all the major ports of the country. The government has taken the first step in this direction. Under the NHDP (phase II), the government will connect major ports and build freight corridors, which will connect many states from the eastern part of India to western India.

In phase III of the NHDP, all major capitals will be connected with highways. Also major cities and points that could not be connected in phase II will be connected with better road infrastructure. Besides, plans are afoot to improve and connect rural India to major cities of the country soon.

EASING HURDLES

Most of these plans are not just on paper. In fact the government has already awarded projects to achieve this goal. The government formed the BK Chaturvedi Committee, which presented its findings and suggestions to make progress in the sector.

Based on the findings of the committee report, several changes have been incorporated and more importantly, the government is seriously working on the recommendations, which are quite innovative and provide solutions to various problems that the companies have been facing.

Changes have been incorporated with regard to land acquisition, which is the biggest problem for construction of roads in the country.

Now, NHAI will work along with the state governments for facilitating land acquisition and all state governments have been directed to coordinate for the same. NHAI now awards road projects only after 80% of the land has been acquired.

FEW SPEED BREAKERS

Tackling delays in approvals, decision-making, faster resolution of disputes and coordination among different departments are few other highlights of the recommendations of the committee report.

Essentially, most of the changes are already in effect and new orders are awarded to interested parties. The flow of new road orders in the last few months was the highest in the last several years. This itself speaks volumes about the commitment of the government and its intention to put things on ground.

Also, the projects which were not viable and did not attract private participation were given extra focus and restructured within time frame along with consultations of private players while changing the terms and conditions of the project. There are other measures also which have attracted private participation in road projects.

Large projects will be built on a BOT basis, which are expected to have a higher return of about 18% to 20% on investments as compared to 14% to 16% earlier. Additionally, the new guidelines that have been framed are such that once a project is awarded for a particular road, the private player is given an assurance that there will not be any competition or construction of road, which will make sure that the cash flow in terms of the collection of the toll is protected.

What is more remarkable is that the government now has experts as representatives from development agencies like the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, who make sure that the projects are not delayed and hurdles are resolved.

These representatives keep track of projects and act as a liaison between government agencies and private parties. They also bring their experience to structure the project in such a manner that it gets executed.

QUANTUM OF OPPORTUNITY

There are different estimates about the size of the opportunity. But there is little or no doubt that the opportunity is far bigger than what it used to be a few years ago.

When we talk about 20 km per day of the construction of roads, this in itself is self-explanatory. This means that the country will have to build about 7,300 km of roads every year. This is significant as the current run rate is just about 2,500-3,000 km of roads built every year.

One could also imagine the kind of work that will now flow. For the eleventh five year plan which will end in 2012-13, about Rs 3.14 trillion will be invested as compared to Rs 1.45 trillion invested in the tenth five year plan. This is still the tip of the iceberg. India’s investment in the roads segment is expected to be in the range of Rs 10.5-11 trillion over the next decade.

In the near term, about 5,000 km of new expressways will be built and the projects will be awarded for the same. Also, NHAI has plans to award work for about 37,000 km of roads over the next three years.

Besides, under the NHDP’s different phases, the government will award work relating to the upgradation of about 55,000 km of roads over the next 8-10 years.

WHO WILL BENEFIT?

Most construction and infrastructure companies are focusing on this particular segment and their exposure has gone up in the recent past. IRB Infrastructure and IL&FS Transport Network (ITNL) are popular in the roads segment having the highest exposure to the road segment. In the case of IL&FS, the company has recently come out with an IPO and was listed recently.

ITNL is amongst the largest private sector BOT road operators in the country having integrated business model providing service for projects, from conceptualization, construction to operating and maintenance of the road projects. The company has already bagged about 19 road projects.

Apart from roads, the company is also looking for opportunities in airport segments and plans to bid for more projects in this segment. The company’s advantage is its large portfolio of BOT assets and a long experience in the sector. The company has presence across different parts of the country and has about 9,397 lane km of road projects under its belt.

IRB Infra too is a leading player in the roads segment generating almost 100% of its revenue from this segment. The well-known Mumbai-Pune highway, one of its kind in India, is operated by IRB Infra.

The company has an integrated business model having large experience in toll roads and highways sector. The company has about 1,100 km of road projects in its kitty, which is the second largest among private players in the whole of India.

As opportunities are growing, the company should be able to procure more projects and increase its current portfolio. The company will not only benefit on account of the construction of these projects but also due to the collection of toll and annuity from these projects, providing stable future cash flow.

Also most of its projects are strategically located in major traffic areas like Mumbai-Pune, Mumbai-Surat, etc. The company also won projects in other states like Rajasthan and Punjab and is gradually focusing on becoming a pan-India player in the road segment.

Source: stockmarketsreview.com